Whatever smart payment solution one creates, without the proper fraud prevention tools, it might become yet another sophisticated manipulation vehicle in the hands of hackers and criminals. Today, the fintech industry spotlight is on fraud prevention: where we stand, what are the biggest achievements and challenges of the segment, and what should we expect next year, as AI is gaining momentum.
E-Commerce Fraud on the Rise Before 2025
Global e-commerce fraud losses reached an estimated $44.3 billion in 2024, with early projections for 2025 pointing to approximately $48 billion, reflecting a 16% year-over-year increase.
In 2024, fraud was driven by rising threats such as refund abuse (up 48%), AI-powered deepfakes (up 28%), and synthetic identity fraud (up 31%). Despite these challenges, businesses managed to reduce the share of revenue lost to fraud, averaging 2.9% of total revenue, down from 3.6% the previous year. North America remained the hardest hit, accounting for 42% of global losses.
Among the most common fraud types, friendly fraud, account takeovers (impacting 32% of merchants), and phishing attacks (affecting 42% of merchants) continued to pose significant operational and financial risks, highlighting the urgent need for advanced prevention strategies and AI-enabled monitoring solutions.
In response, the majority of merchants planned to boost fraud prevention budgets, with 75% reported increasing their fraud prevention spending and having on average five different detection tools.
Today, as we are nearing the end of 2025, fraud in online retail is still escalating at a pace that many merchants are struggling to contain. On average, fraud now costs online retailers $11 million annually.
The Growing Role of AI in Fraud Prevention
AI is increasingly becoming a cornerstone in the fight against payment fraud, and recent developments suggest we may be entering a turning point for global financial security.
A major milestone for fraud prevention in the payments realm came from SWIFT, which rolled out an AI‑powered fraud detection capability for cross‑border payments this January. This enhanced service reportedly doubled real‑time fraud detection efficacy compared with older, non‑AI methods in early trials.
At the same time, a recent survey by McKinsey & Company, which found that 88% of companies globally now use AI in at least one business function (a clear indication that AI tools are broadly embraced), also reveals a caveat: less than one in three companies have managed to scale their AI programs beyond pilot phases.
This juxtaposition, widespread adoption against limited scaling, underscores both the potential and the challenges for AI in fraud prevention. On one hand, tools like SWIFT’s AI‑powered fraud detection show real promise: faster identification of suspicious transactions, cross‑institution collaboration, and a data-driven defence approach. On the other hand, McKinsey’s findings suggest many organizations still struggle to embed AI deeply across operations, especially in high‑stakes areas like payments and compliance.
Meanwhile, fraudsters don’t sleep.
AI in Payments Fraud: Risk and Protection Side by Side
And that’s not all the dilemmas involved in modern payment fraud prevention driven by AI technology. For one, AI is used not only by the “good guys” in the payments industry. Here is what industry experts have witnessed this year.
“What stood out this year is how quickly the digital environment is shifting under our feet. Bad bots now outnumber good ones, one in six site visits comes through a VPN, and incognito browsing has jumped by 70 percent. Put together, it becomes obvious that it is getting harder to know who is really behind a session. Relying only on surface-level identity checks or basic device signals just does not work in this kind of landscape anymore.
The good news is that we are also seeing real progress. More financial institutions are moving toward privacy-preserving behavioral and device intelligence to understand how users interact, how consistent their device environment is, and whether their session actually makes sense. Combining identity verification with behavioral and device intelligence helps detect fraud risk a lot earlier than any ID or document check is even made, while keeping genuine customers moving through the journey without friction.”
Michele Tucci, Chief Strategy Officer and co-founder of Credolab
Understanding who’s behind the website visits or transactions is especially important this time of year, as fraudsters accelerate their efforts during the busy holiday shopping season.
“December is when payment-diversion scams peak. Fraudsters know finance teams are processing higher volumes, covering for colleagues, and under pressure to close the year — all of which creates the perfect window for a fake bank-detail change to slip through.
The most common schemes we’re seeing involve impersonating long-standing suppliers or mimicking genuine invoices but with altered account numbers. These attacks are often prepared weeks in advance and triggered when inboxes are busiest.
The simplest protections are still the most effective: verify every bank-detail change with an out-of-band call, use a trusted database to confirm beneficiary identities, and make sure no payment is approved on email instructions alone. Those small steps consistently stop the losses.”
Patrice Bouexel, General Manager at Sis ID
Visa also highlights the impact of global cybercrime networks, which are becoming more organized and technologically advanced. Criminal groups are coordinating attacks across regions, which increases the need for international cooperation on cybersecurity and fraud prevention.
Looking Ahead: Fraud Prevention Trends to Watch in 2026
Taking into account the rapidly developing artificial intelligence technology and the pressing need to withstand increasingly ‘smart’ cyber attacks from criminals equipped with the latest tech innovation tools, 2026 may signal the beginning of a gradual but strategic shift, where AI stops to be an experimental add‑on and starts becoming a core part of fraud prevention.
“Looking ahead to 2026, AI is going to shape both the threat and the defense. Fraudsters will keep using generative and automated tools to scale up attacks and mimic users more convincingly. At the same time, financial institutions will rely on AI models that can read micro-behaviors, detect unusual patterns, and evaluate digital trust in real time. The companies that succeed will be the ones that bring identity, behavior, and device intelligence together into a single, adaptive view of trust. Fraud prevention is no longer a checkpoint. It is a continuous process that runs throughout the entire customer journey.”
Michele Tucci, Chief Strategy Officer and co-founder of Credolab
AI-driven fraud prevention and business or transaction intelligence is especially relevant since open banking frameworks are currently being transformed into full open finance ecosystems, where financial data must be exchanged between multiple parties safely. At the same time, AI innovations must be implemented with all due diligence and precaution to maintain consumer trust.
“Smart Data can only thrive if consumers trust it. This means building security, resilience, and accountability into the ecosystem from day one. We must protect customers, not retrospectively but pre-emptively – closing the stable door before the horse bolts.
The next phase of Open Finance will only scale if it is safe. That’s why we believe in 2026 we will see more focus on third-party risk protections and more work to expand ecosystem security through greater cross-industry collaboration.
Artificial Intelligence will become the engine driving the next chapter of Open Finance. 2026 will see AI move beyond analytics to autonomous financial intelligence – interpreting real-time financial data to predict, prevent, and personalise.
As AI deepens its reach, ethical data use and governance must keep pace. Financial services organisations must take steps now to create adequate risk frameworks to safeguard customers and ensure AI is being deployed appropriately. The winners will be those who combine innovation with integrity – using AI not just to make finance smarter, but safer for all.”
Helen Child, the CEO and Founder of Open Banking Excellence (OBE)
Closing Thoughts
As 2025 draws to a close, one thing is clear: the battle against payment fraud is becoming more complex, more global, and more technologically charged. Fintech leaders agree that the industry is entering a pivotal moment where AI will increasingly define both the scale of emerging threats and the sophistication of the defenses built to counter them.
The lessons of this year underline an urgent need for collaboration, continuous monitoring, and responsible AI adoption as open finance expands and fraudsters sharpen their tools. Moving into 2026, the institutions that build trust through resilience, intelligence, and proactive protection will be the ones best positioned to safeguard customers and stay ahead in a rapidly evolving digital financial landscape.
 Michele Tucci, Credolab |
Michele Tucci is the Chief Strategy Officer and co-founder at Credolab, a global leader in device behavioural data and analytics. With over 25 years of experience across fintech, consumer lending, payments, wallets, and digital products, Michele has been instrumental in shaping the company’s strategic direction, leading product innovation and driving international expansion. |
 Helen Child, OBE |
Helen Child is the CEO and Founder of Open Banking Excellence (OBE). She has played an instrumental role in building the UK’s open banking market and is the founder of the world’s largest Open Banking and Open Finance Community. Through Ignite – OBE’s advisory arm – she advises banks, regulators and policymakers globally on Open Banking, Open Finance and Smart Data matters. She is also an advisor to HMRC. |
 Patrice Bouexel, Sis ID
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Patrice Bouexel is the General Manager at Sis ID, a real-time solution designed for delivering a Confirmation of Payee service to avoid misdirected payments and to ensure that payments are sent to and collected from the intended account holder across the globe. Skilled in Sales & Management, Software Industry and Software as a Service (SaaS) offerings. Strong sales professional with a DMSE Master’s Degree focused in Business Strategy & General Management from ESCP Europe. |
