After a turbulent June that saw U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) record their worst month on record, some market participants believe investor sentiment could begin to recover in July as macroeconomic conditions become more supportive and on-chain indicators strengthen.
According to SoSoValue data, U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced approximately $4.5 billion in net outflows during June, surpassing the previous monthly record and marking nine consecutive trading days of redemptions. Total ETF assets fell from roughly $83 billion at the start of the month to around $71 billion as Bitcoin declined more than 20% over the period.
Despite the sharp withdrawals, Can-Luca Köymen, Investment Strategist at Sygnum Bank, believes conditions are shifting in a way that could reduce selling pressure in the weeks ahead.
“Bitcoin enters July on a shifting macro backdrop. The Strait of Hormuz has reopened faster than expected, with Gulf supply recovering. Oil has fallen back below pre-war levels, easing the energy-driven inflation impulse that had pushed the Fed hawkish. Chair Warsh’s comments on 1 July, acknowledging that inflation risks have come down, read as less hawkish than his prior tone, and a softer labour market points in the same direction. Together these factors argue for a repricing rate hike probabilities.”
According to Köymen, improving macroeconomic conditions are being accompanied by more constructive signals within the cryptocurrency market itself.
“Crypto’s own signals are turning too. Long-term holders have returned to net accumulation, and whales have been building aggressively into weakness, notably better at timing entries than the largely newer, non-native investors who access Bitcoin through ETFs. With Bitcoin trading well below its 200-day average and beneath the previous cycle’s high, the entry point looks relatively attractive.”
He added that while trading volumes may remain subdued during the summer months, ETF flows could begin to stabilize.
“We therefore see a lower probability of continued net ETF outflows in July and a better chance of flows turning positive, though summer liquidity means any volume is likely modest in magnitude but positive in direction. A 17 July hearing on the CLARITY Act is a further watch item: a surprise push toward passage could act as a catalyst.”
The comments come as institutional sentiment toward digital assets remains mixed. Earlier this month, Citigroup lowered its 12-month Bitcoin price target, citing persistent ETF outflows and slower-than-expected progress on U.S. cryptocurrency regulation. The bank also revised its forecast for net Bitcoin ETF inflows over the next year from $10 billion to zero, highlighting weaker institutional demand in recent months.
While June’s record redemptions underscore the challenges facing the market, analysts note that ETF flows often respond quickly to changing macroeconomic expectations. With inflation concerns easing, interest-rate expectations softening, and regulatory developments back in focus, July could provide an early indication of whether institutional investors are ready to return to Bitcoin exposure after one of the sector’s most difficult months since spot ETFs launched.
