Global economic growth is projected to remain resilient at 3.3% in 2026, according to the International Monetary Fund’s latest World Economic Outlook. The forecast is slightly higher than the 3.1% growth predicted in October 2025, suggesting that the global economy has absorbed recent shocks better than expected.
The IMF attributes the improved outlook to continued investment in artificial intelligence and other technologies, along with fiscal and monetary support and the private sector’s ability to adapt. These factors are expected to help offset headwinds from shifting trade policies and geopolitical uncertainty.
However, the IMF warns that growth will be uneven across regions. Advanced economies are projected to expand at 1.8% in 2026, while emerging markets and developing economies are expected to grow slightly above 4% in both 2026 and 2027. This reflects continued strength in several emerging markets, even as advanced economies face slower demand and structural challenges.
In the United States, the IMF expects growth of 2.4% in 2026, an upward revision of 0.3 percentage points from the October forecast. The update reflects a stronger-than-anticipated rebound in activity early in the year, compared with the final quarter of 2025, following the period of disruption caused by the government shutdown.
China’s economy is forecast to grow 4.5% in 2026, also 0.3 percentage points higher than the previous estimate. The IMF points to lower U.S. effective tariff rates on Chinese goods after the trade truce agreed in November, as well as assumed stimulus measures over the next two years, as supporting factors.
Despite the improved projections, the IMF stresses that the outlook remains fragile. The agency notes uncertainty around whether AI will deliver the productivity gains anticipated, or whether investment could instead create an AI-driven bubble. At the same time, the risk of renewed trade tensions remains high, which could disrupt supply chains and dampen growth.
Other major institutions have issued similar projections for 2026. The OECD’s outlook aligns closely with the IMF’s forecast, while the World Bank’s Global Economic Prospects report projects slightly lower growth at 2.6% for 2026, reflecting a more cautious view of the global recovery.
