Although annual revenue growth is expected to slow from 8.8% to 4.0% within the next five years, global payments revenue is still forecast to increase to $2.4 trillion by 2029, as agentic AI, digital currencies, and fintech business models boost the growth.
A new research from Boston Consulting Group (BCG) reveals that the next phase of payment transformation will significantly decrease the revenue growth tempo but transaction-related revenues will accelerate their rise by 6% annually, driving wider global payments growth to $2.4 trillion by 2029.
The BCG forecast points to slower expansion of about 4% annually compared with nearly 9% in the past five years. On the background of moderation, the report highlights that the payment sector is entering a period of structural change driven by new technologies and business models, which will force industry leaders to focus on transforming the rules of the game, not just accelerating it.
The report outlines how agentic AI, digital currencies such as stablecoins, and real-time account-to-account payments are beginning to reshape the industry’s economics.
Stablecoins, already seeing $26 trillions in transaction volume though mostly tied to crypto trading, are viewed as a potential bridge to new payment opportunities for banks and nonbank providers.
Meanwhile, agentic AI will shape more than $1 trillion in e-commerce spending. The BCG research shows that 81% of US consumers expect to use AI agent tools when shopping, indicating that they could drive over half of online purchases in the coming years.
Global real-time account-to-account payment volumes grew by 40% in 2024, bringing their share to about a quarter of digital retail transactions worldwide. In markets such as India and Brazil, they already represent more than half of all payments, while adoption in the Middle East and Africa is expected to surpass 50% by 2030.
At the same time, fintech firms are capturing a growing share of global payments revenue, supported by rapid innovation and strong funding flows. Payments-focused fintechs produced $176 billion in revenue in 2024 and are expanding at an annual rate of 23%. Over the past 25 years, they have secured more than $135 billion in equity funding and now account for 45% of total fintech revenue, with leading firms growing at triple the pace of traditional players.
Regional growth is expected to differ widely, with Latin America, the Middle East, and Africa projected to outpace more mature markets in Europe, North America, and Asia-Pacific.
BCG frames these shifts as part of a broader reset in payments, where traditional growth drivers are weakening but new forces are creating opportunities for firms that adapt early. The findings suggest that payments are moving beyond incremental efficiency gains toward a more profound transformation of how money flows through the global economy.
