By the end of September, China’s economy showed a dynamic of recovery.
On Wednesday, October 18, the National Bureau of Statistics published data according to which last month the gross domestic product of this Asian country grew by 4.9% compared to the indicator for the same period in 2022. Analysts interviewed by the media predicted an increase in GDP by 4.4% in September. According to experts, official data indicate that Beijing can achieve economic development targets this year.
In the first nine months of 2023, China’s economy showed growth of 5.2% compared to the result for the same period last year.
Zhiwei Zhang, president and chief economist of Pinpoint Asset Management in Hong Kong, in an analytical note positively assesses the prospects of the Asian country. He said that by the end of this year, Beijing will be able to achieve the economic growth target of about 5%.
On a quarterly basis, China’s economy grew by 1.3% between July and September. In the previous quarter, the positive indicator was 0.8%.
The National Bureau of Statistics reports that one of the most impressive indicators in the third quarter was consumer spending. In September, retail sales increased by 5.5% year-on-year. This is the best indicator for the last four months.
At the same time, the real estate sector, which is an important component of the Сhinesse economic system, is in a state of decline and slows down the pace of overall growth. According to the results of the first nine months of this year, according to the National Bureau of Statistics, the volume of investments in this sphere decreased by 9.1% compared to the same period in 2022.
The real estate market accounts for up to 30% of China’s economy. In this sphere, the crisis began more than two years ago after the government decided to tighten the clampdown on developers’ borrowing. Experts predict that the real estate sector will have a negative impact on China’s economic growth prospects over the next three to five years.
This year has started positively for the world’s second-largest economy. The country was steadily recovering after the coronavirus pandemic. But in April, the positive dynamics began to show a decline in intensity. The negative trend was caused by factors such as low consumer spending, declining property values, and weak demand for manufactured goods on the global market. Beijing has taken measures to restore a positive economic dynamic. As part of the relevant efforts, decisions were made to lower interest rates, lift restrictions on the purchase of cars and housing, accelerate infrastructure projects, and ease capital controls to attract foreign investment.
Capital Economics analysts, in a research report published on October 18, stated that there are currently signs of a positive vector for the development of the Chinese economy. This means the effectiveness of the measures taken by Beijing.
The unemployment rate in Chinese cities fell to 5% last month from 5.2% in August. This is the lowest value of the corresponding indicator since November 2021. But there is no information about the youth unemployment rate, which reached a record high of 21.3% in June.
Industrial production in China increased by 4.5% year-on-year in September. This indicator corresponds to the August dynamic.