Rising insolvencies, geopolitical tensions, trade protectionism and supply chain disruption are creating new risks for GCC companies expanding into international markets
Global business insolvencies increased by 6% in 2025 and are expected to rise by a further 4% in 2026, according to AU Group MEA’s Credit Insurance Market 2026 study.
Key findings from the Credit Insurance Market 2026 study
- Global business insolvencies increased by 6% in 2025 and are expected to rise by a further 4% in 2026.
- The return of trade protectionism is contributing to supply chain disruption, higher logistics costs and greater uncertainty around pricing and margins.
- Geopolitical tensions are increasingly affecting customer creditworthiness through higher energy, freight and raw material costs.
- Credit insurers increased overall risk exposure by approximately 3%, indicating continued support for international trade.
- The Middle Eastern market has remained relatively resilient, with insurers largely maintaining capacity while monitoring regional developments.
AU Group has provided brokerage and consultancy services focused on credit and political risk management and working capital financing since 1929. The company works with B2B businesses across sectors and operates in 50 countries with 310 experts.
The insolvency increase revealed by the firm’s fresh report is caused by a combination of economic, geopolitical and supply chain pressures. In this environment, companies in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) expanding into new international markets face additional risks around customers, suppliers and cross-border trade.
The study points to several factors contributing to a more uncertain global trading environment, including the return of trade protectionism, geopolitical tensions, higher logistics costs and continued supply chain disruption.
The report further suggests that these risks are connected. They do not occur independently. For example, a geopolitical disruption can affect the availability or cost of raw materials. It also interrupts transportation routes and increases freight and energy costs. These aggregated pressures ultimately affect a company’s cash flow and ability to meet its financial obligations, potentially increasing credit risk for its trading partners.
According to the study, geopolitical developments are increasingly influencing customer creditworthiness as well. It happens through their impact on energy, freight and raw material costs. This way, companies assessing the financial strength of international customers should consider the wider geopolitical and supply chain environment in which those customers operate.
Aurélien Paradis, CEO of AU Group MEA, said:
“The GCC has become one of the world’s most important trade and investment corridors, linking Asia, Europe and Africa. As economic diversification accelerates across the region, companies are engaging with new markets, suppliers and customers at an unprecedented scale. Success in this environment will depend not only on identifying opportunities but also on understanding the evolving trade risks that accompany them.”
GCC economies continue to develop their roles in international trade, logistics, manufacturing, energy transition and investment. Local businesses expand beyond traditional markets, and their exposure to changes in global demand, trade policy, supply chains and geopolitical conditions can also increase.
The report also examines the resilience of the Middle Eastern credit insurance market. Despite heightened regional tensions and concerns surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, credit insurers have largely maintained their support for businesses and have not significantly reduced capacity across the region.
The Credit Insurance Market 2026 study also reports that credit insurers increased their overall risk exposure by approximately 3%, indicating continued support for international trade despite the broader uncertainty.
AU Group MEA says this continued availability of credit insurance reflects the strategic importance of Middle Eastern trade corridors and the longer-term role of the region in global commerce.
