The International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicts a high level of influence of artificial intelligence on the state of affairs in the labor market.
The mentioned organization assumes that the importance of machine intelligence as a kind of factor in transforming the structure of the workflow will be maximized in advanced economies. The relevant assumptions and preliminary conclusions, which may become reality shortly, are contained in a message published on the IMF blog.
The fund’s analysts also noted that among all types of economic systems, about 40% of global employment depends on artificial intelligence. At the same time, they note that in countries with advanced economies, about 60% of jobs may be affected by AI.
IMF representatives believe that artificial intelligence can become a transformative factor for the activities of highly qualified specialists.
The fund’s forecast notes that in advanced economies, about half of the jobs can benefit from the integration of machine intelligence. At the same time, the organization’s analysts said that the second half of the employment system is likely to face the negative consequences of expanding the use of artificial intelligence. In this case, according to IMF representatives, applying AI as a working tool will entail a gradual reduction in the need for people in certain positions. Apps based on artificial intelligence will perform the work that is currently included in the area of responsibilities of living employees. Gradually, this trend of using machine intelligence will become a catalyst for reducing the level of demand for labor and cutting wages. Moreover, artificial intelligence will be the reason for the decline in hiring.
IMF representatives also admit the possibility that, against the background of the active use of machine intelligence as a working tool, some professions may disappear altogether. Analysts do not specify which professions are meant in this case.
The IMF forecast also suggests that in emerging economies and low-income countries, the impact of artificial intelligence on jobs will be 40% and 26%, respectively. At the same time, it is separately noted that slighter developed economies will be less exposed to the risk of potential AI failures. Analysts draw attention to the fact that the mentioned countries often lack the necessary infrastructure and skilled labor to fully utilize all the advantages of artificial intelligence. Against this background, there are concerns that uneven opportunities for access to AI will become a new dimension of the situation of inequality between countries.
The IMF report also notes that artificial intelligence can cause an increase in the income and wealth gap within states. Employees who can use AI effectively can achieve the goal of increasing productivity and thereby growing their salary. Those who cannot effectively apply artificial intelligence will find themselves on the worst side of the income and wealth gap.
At the same time, the results of industry research indicate that AI can help less experienced workers increase productivity faster. This means that young employees of various companies and organizations will become a kind of beneficiaries of the use of artificial intelligence. At the same time, for older workers, adapting to new technological realities can be a difficult task.
The IMF has created the AI Preparedness Index, with the help of which countries will be provided with assistance in shaping policies regarding the introduction of artificial intelligence into the processes of state life. This index determines the readiness of states in such areas as digital infrastructure, human capital, innovation, regulation, ethics, economic integration, and the concept of the labor market.
The IMF recommends that advanced economies give priority to innovative solutions and the introduction of artificial intelligence, while simultaneously creating a reliable regulatory framework and a responsible AI environment.
The fund’s experts also believe that developing and emerging economies should focus on building a solid foundation by investing in digital infrastructure and skilled labor in the sphere of virtual technologies.
The results of a survey by ResumeBuilder, released in December, indicate that among the CEOs of companies using artificial intelligence, 37% believed that AI would replace workers in 2023, and 44% expected this to happen in 2024.
As we have reported earlier, EU Digital Chief Says About Impact of AI Act on Innovation.
