Robinhood says contracts on Bitcoin, gold, and oil are among the fastest-growing products in its prediction markets segment.
The company notes a shift in trader interest from sports and elections toward financial assets, with some crypto contracts now settling in 15 minutes.
JB Mackenzie, Robinhood’s vice president and general manager of futures and prediction markets, discussed the trend at the NEXTPredict conference in New York. According to a CoinDesk report, sports remains the company’s largest category, but contracts linked to financial markets are gaining traction. Robinhood has not disclosed individual trading volumes or growth rates for Bitcoin, gold, or oil.
Prediction markets allow traders to take positions on specific outcomes without buying the underlying asset. For example, a Bitcoin contract might ask whether BTC will trade above a certain price at a given time. A correct prediction pays a fixed amount, while an incorrect one results in the loss of the contract’s value. Robinhood entered the segment through its partnership with Kalshi, integrating event contracts into its brokerage app.
Mackenzie noted that the company’s largest individual event contract in September was tied to the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate decision. This shows that economic announcements can attract significant trading interest. Another notable trend is the shortening duration of crypto contracts.
What began as week-long predictions has moved to daily markets, and in some cases contracts now settle in just 15 minutes. These products increasingly resemble the short-term speculation familiar from options and futures, although their payout structures differ.
The shift is also significant financially: prediction markets have already become one of Robinhood’s largest sources of transaction revenue. In the second quarter of 2026, the company generated $156 million from event contracts.
By comparison, equity trading brought in $129 million and cryptocurrency transactions $100 million. Customers traded approximately 13.6 billion event contracts during the quarter, more than ten times the year-earlier total.
Mackenzie said prediction-market users frequently go on to trade stocks, futures, options, and cryptocurrency. This makes the segment potentially valuable beyond direct contract fees, although the company has not disclosed how much additional revenue these customers generate. At the same time, cryptocurrency trading revenue declined during the quarter, while event contracts provided another source of transaction income.
Financial contracts give Robinhood an additional growth opportunity amid legal challenges facing sports-related prediction markets. State regulators and tribal gaming interests have questioned whether some sports event contracts effectively operate as betting products, even though they are offered through federally regulated derivatives venues.
Contracts on Bitcoin, gold, and economic events raise different regulatory questions and are not directly equivalent to sports betting. However, shorter-duration financial predictions carry their risks, particularly when contracts expire within minutes. Mackenzie compared short-term crypto predictions to zero-day options, noting the possibility of rapid losses.
Robinhood’s expansion beyond its traditional brokerage model has already drawn attention from analysts examining the company’s increasingly diversified revenue sources. While sports remains the largest category, growing interest in Bitcoin, gold, and oil shows that traders are using event contracts more actively to speculate on the prices of financial assets.
The company has not yet provided a detailed breakdown by individual markets, but the overall revenue and volume trends indicate that prediction markets have become a meaningful part of the business.
