South African merchants are facing higher delivery costs after diesel rose by about R3 a litre from 2 September, according to Shiprazor. The multi-courier logistics platform says another R3 a litre increase is expected on 7 October. Sahil Affriya, founder and CEO of Shiprazor, discussed how merchants can assess the true cost of fulfilling an order and protect their margins.
Fuel Is Only One Part of Delivery Cost
Fuel surcharges are one of several costs that add to a courier’s quoted rate. Oversized packaging, failed delivery attempts, returns and customer-service time can raise the total further. Shiprazor says the real cost of fulfilling an order can be considerably higher than the initial quote.
The pressure comes as online order volumes grow. World Wide Worx expects South Africans to spend about R159 billion online in 2026, up 22.5% from about R130 billion in 2025. More orders mean small fulfilment losses multiply.
Affriya said fuel is not always the main source of those losses.
“Fuel is the visible increase, but it is often not the biggest leak in the delivery process,” says Affriya. “A merchant may focus on saving a few rand on the courier quote while losing far more through a second delivery attempt, a return, the wrong service level or packaging that pushes the parcel into a higher charge band.”
Affriya’s Recommendations for Merchants
Measure the cost of a successful delivery. Affriya says the key figure is not always the advertised courier rate. He defines it as total logistics spend divided by the orders that reach the customer and stay delivered.
Bring all costs into one view. Affriya recommends that merchants combine fuel adjustments, surcharges, reattempts, returns and support costs. A low first booking can become an expensive order if the address is wrong, the customer is unavailable or the parcel has to travel twice. He says reviewing costs by route, parcel type and courier shows where margin is being lost.
Match the courier to the route. Affriya notes that one courier may perform well on a major-city route and poorly in an outlying area. Another may suit lockers, heavier parcels or regional deliveries.
“Merchants need to compare their options and choose the service that works best for each delivery. Price is important, but a cheaper service can end up costing more if the parcel arrives late or has to be sent again.”
He adds that a courier’s headline rate will not always be the final price. Fuel adjustments and booking details can raise it, so merchants should confirm what they will pay before booking. If one option costs too much, he recommends checking another courier or service before sending the parcel.
Weighing Shipping Fees Against Cart Abandonment
Affriya cautions against passing every increase on to customers. Higher shipping fees may protect margin on one order but can cost the merchant the sale.
Retailers report that shipping fees already affect checkout completion. The Online Retail in South Africa 2026 report found that 51.7% of retailers cited high shipping fees as a reason for cart abandonment, up from 31.3% in 2025. Only card declines ranked higher, at 61.2%.
Affriya says merchants need to decide how much of an increase they can absorb before passing costs on. He suggests revisiting free-shipping thresholds or offering a cheaper service for less urgent orders.
“Merchants should test targeted changes instead: adjust free-delivery thresholds, offer a slower lower-cost option, or vary the delivery contribution by basket value rather than applying a blanket increase.”
Modelling the Next Increase
Affriya recommends that merchants test how further fuel rises would affect their per-order costs before the next adjustment.
“The answer is not always to charge the customer more; it is to make a better decision on each order. Merchants need to model the effect of a further R5 or R10 increase in the cost per order before the next fuel adjustment,” he continues.
The Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources is due to announce official October fuel prices on 5 October, with changes taking effect on 7 October. Central Energy Fund projections point to an increase of about R3 a litre for 50ppm diesel. These figures are estimates until the department confirms them.
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