The era of undisputed US dominance in artificial intelligence may be numbered. At least according to the people who decide where billions of investment dollars go next.
A new global survey of institutional investors and wealth managers found that most no longer expect the United States to hold on to its position as the world’s sole leader in artificial intelligence. The Robocap research, conducted with 100 senior executives at pension funds, insurance asset managers, family offices and wealth managers collectively managing $513 billion in assets, shows that 56% believe the US and China will become joint leaders in the global AI race within the next five years.
Only a third of respondents think the US will keep its current lead, and just 2% expect China to overtake it outright. The finding signals a shift in how the investors who allocate large pools of capital are thinking about where AI-related growth, and AI-related risk, will actually come from over the next several years.
Recent industry developments seem to coincide with the investors’ theory. Just this week, we have reported that Alipay introduced China’s first full-stack agentic commerce platform to help merchants move from standard digital operations to AI-powered operations. Moreover, a popular payment gateway in India, Razorpay has also launched Vulcan, an artificial intelligence (AI) foundation model designed specifically for payments specifics of the Indian market. This launch suggests that though USA and China might jointly lead the AI race, more markets and companies are ready to participate, only accelerating the growth and competitiveness of the AI technology.
Robocap is a London-based investment fund that specialises in publicly listed companies working in robotics, automation and AI. Thes sectors are often grouped together because they rely on similar technology and, increasingly, attract the same pool of investors. The firm commissioned the independent research company Pureprofile to carry out the survey in May 2026 among investors based in the UK, US, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, Hong Kong, Germany and Switzerland.
Besides stats themselves, survey pointed to reasons behind the shift. China already leads in the number of AI patents filed, the volume of research talent it produces, and some real-world robotics applications. The US, meanwhile, is still seen as ahead in private investment, advanced semiconductor design, and building the most powerful large-scale AI models. Investors appear to be betting that these strengths will increasingly converge rather than one country pulling further ahead.
“The US has long dominated the global AI race but professional investors are increasingly convinced that dominance will end.
They are not convinced China will assume global AI leadership on its own but expect it to share leadership with the US as the sector as a whole advances. In fact the research shows some are convinced another country or region could assume AI leadership.
“The clear message for investors is that they have to think globally and look beyond the traditional powerhouse of the US and be open to opportunities worldwide.”
Jonathan Cohen, Founder and CIO at Robocap
The leadership shift may be linked not only to tech capabilities but also to the treatment of data necessary for AI growth. In a report published on Tuesday, the US-China Economic and Security Review Commission (USCC) warned that the US risks ceding global leadership in setting global data standards to China, since the latter actively deepens the data commercialisation, while the US has no national data strategy that treats data as an economic asset.
The Robocap research also touched on where else investment money might flow. Nearly all respondents (99%) expect the UK’s AI market, which is already the third largest in the world by value, to keep growing, with 28% predicting a dramatic increase. All respondents expect the UAE and Saudi Arabia to succeed in their plans to become global hubs for AI research and data centres, with 60% calling that success likely to be substantial. At the same time, investors broadly agreed that AI regulation in the UK and European Union is too strict and is holding back innovation, with 30% saying they strongly agree.
Energy policy also featured in the findings: 96% of respondents believe their home countries are on the right track with energy policy to meet both environmental and AI ambitions, though 60% think governments should prioritise AI-related energy independence over efforts to limit energy production.
