Bain & Company Predicts Slower Retail Sales Growth in the US, UK, France and Germany in 2026
Retail sales growth across major developed markets is expected to decelerate in 2026 as persistent economic headwinds temper consumer demand, according to Bain & Company’s 2026 Global Retail Sales Outlook. The consulting firm forecasts that while retail sales will continue to expand in the United States, United Kingdom, France and Germany next year, the pace of growth will be more moderate than in 2025, with consumers showing caution amid ongoing financial pressures.
In its outlook, Bain projects that U.S. retail sales will grow by about 3.5% year-over-year in 2026, reaching approximately $5.3 trillion — slightly below the roughly 4% expansion estimated for 2025. The slower pace reflects weaker consumer confidence and increased spending on value-oriented options as households adjust to inflation and economic uncertainty.
Across the Atlantic, retail growth in the UK is forecast at around 2%, with sales volumes in food expected to remain flat and non-food categories showing slight contraction. High living costs, elevated mortgage rates and a softening labour market are cited as factors dampening discretionary spending.
France is expected to see near-flat retail growth of about 1.5% in 2026, down from an estimated 1.7% in 2025, with little change in overall sales volumes as inflation gradually stabilises. Germany’s retail sector is projected to expand by roughly 2.5%, also slower than the previous year’s performance, though moderate volume gains are anticipated.
Bain highlights that ongoing economic pressures, including rising costs for households and cautious consumer sentiment, are driving the forecasted slowdown. The firm suggests that retailers will need to sharpen their value propositions and explore innovative strategies, including leveraging artificial intelligence and enhanced customer experiences, to attract and retain shoppers in a more competitive environment.
Despite the anticipated deceleration, the 2026 outlook still reflects positive, if subdued, growth across all four markets. The shopping appetites might be slightly tamed by caution and unwelcoming economic environment. However, when fueled a little by timely discounts and flexible payment methods available, consumer inflows can turn out unexpectedly high despite pssimistic forecasts, as 2025 U.S. holiday shopping stats clearly showed. Retailers that can adapt to changing consumer behaviour and reinforce the value they offer may be best positioned to navigate the slower growth environment while capturing emerging opportunities.
