Equities at record highs. Bitcoin hovering near $75K. Oil rattled by geopolitics. The week’s market story is being written in the Middle East.
US stocks closed at all-time highs on Wednesday, powered by a broad tech rally and growing optimism that the US-Iran conflict may be nearing its end. The Nasdaq Composite hit a new record of 24,016, up 1.59% on the day, while the S&P 500 tagged 7,022 — its own fresh peak, after gaining 0.8%. Tech stocks led the charge with a 2.08% gain across the sector. Tom Lee from Fundstrat went on CNBC’s Closing Bell and said something worth noting — the market is actually in better shape today than it was at the highs earlier this year. His bet for what leads the next leg up: crypto, the Magnificent Seven, and software.
A lot of money is still sitting on the sidelines from investors waiting to see how the Iran situation plays out. When that clarity comes, it has to go somewhere. On that front, Trump told Fox Business on Wednesday the war is “very close to being over” — then immediately added that a deal still needs to happen. Classic. Markets heard the first part and ran with it. Whether the second part catches up is the question nobody can answer yet.
Bitcoin: Still knocking on the door
Bitcoin touched $75,229 on Wednesday, riding the same wave of cautious optimism that lifted stocks. It’s up roughly 10% over the past two weeks — not bad. But getting past $76,000 is proving harder than it looks. Every time buyers push up into that zone, sellers show up and push it back down. The charts are starting to reflect that tension. $70,467 is the number traders are watching right now. Hold above it, and the bullish case stays alive. Lose it, and we’re probably talking $66,000–$68,000 before anyone gets excited again. The macro target of $79,000 remains in play, but only with strong volume confirmation above the current resistance.
Meanwhile, institutional appetite for Bitcoin exposure keeps growing. Morgan Stanley’s Bitcoin ETF, launched just over a week ago, has already surpassed WisdomTree’s Bitcoin Fund in total net inflows, pulling in $103 million in under six trading days. For comparison, WisdomTree had been accumulating its $86 million since January 2024. Goldman Sachs also filed with the SEC this week to launch its own Bitcoin-linked ETF, adding further institutional weight to the space.
Oil: Volatile, politically charged — and now under investigation
Oil markets have been one of the most turbulent corners of the week. The CFTC is now investigating suspicious trading activity in oil futures tied to Trump administration announcements on Iran. Regulators are focusing on two specific windows: first, on March 23, when billions of dollars in futures traded approximately 15 minutes before Trump delayed planned strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure; and second, on April 7, when a similar spike preceded the announcement of a two-week ceasefire. Both episodes contributed to falling oil prices and rising equity markets.
The CFTC is requesting identity data from exchanges to trace the trades. The probe runs parallel to broader scrutiny of insider trading on prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi.
Currencies: The yen under pressure
Japan is getting squeezed from two sides right now. Oil swings because of the Middle East conflict, and the yen feels it almost immediately. Japan imports most of its energy, so when oil gets messy, so does the currency. Finance Minister Katayama came out this week to say they’re watching FX closely and have been talking to the G7 and US Treasury Secretary Bessent about it. She stopped short of an intervention threat, but then said it made sense to adopt a wait-and-see approach.
“Many central bankers, being economists, said it’s better to wait and see for now, because raising rates in the current situation would obviously have some negative impact on the economy, and we don’t yet know how large that impact would be,” said Japan’s Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama
The euro, meanwhile, is quietly having a decent week. It’s holding above 1.1800 against the dollar, helped by the same ceasefire hopes that are lifting stocks. Less fear means less of a rush into the dollar, and that gives the euro some breathing room.
The big picture
Markets right now are being driven by one central variable: the trajectory of the US-Iran conflict. A ceasefire deal would be a major tailwind across equities, crypto, and currencies simultaneously, while relieving pressure on oil. Investors are positioning for that outcome, but with caution. Until a deal is signed, every rally carries the risk of a reversal.
