A new study has found a $360 billion gap in the potential economic benefits of artificial intelligence between the Commonwealth countries best prepared to use the technology and those that are not.
After ten years, the 15 best-prepared countries could see a combined AI-related boost to GDP of $389.2 billion under a moderate scenario. The remaining 41 countries face a potential impact of just $29.2 billion.
The findings come from the Ayre Index, launched at the Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting in Antigua and Barbuda. Produced by a think tank founded by Antiguan-Canadian philanthropist Calvin Ayre, the index is the first comparable assessment of AI readiness across all 56 Commonwealth countries. It focuses on the ability of the 732 million young people aged 15 to 29 in the Commonwealth to take advantage of AI.
Researchers drew on 1,128 sources and applied economic scenarios developed by the International Monetary Fund. Only 15 countries met the benchmark for youth AI readiness. Singapore ranks first with 77.6 points out of 100, followed by Malta (75.0), Australia (71.0), the United Kingdom (70.8), and Canada (70.2). Lesotho (27.8) and Malawi (26.3) sit at the bottom. Of the Commonwealth’s 21 African countries, only Mauritius, South Africa and Nigeria meet the readiness threshold.
The potential impact AI could have on the level of GDP after ten years amounts to $126.1 billion for the United Kingdom, $79.1 billion for India, $73.1 billion for Canada and $56.7 billion for Australia. Among those below the benchmark, Bangladesh has an opportunity of $8.2 billion, Pakistan $8.1 billion, Kenya about $2 billion and Ghana $1.7 billion.
The $360 billion difference is almost equal to the annual economic output of Egypt or Chile, and more than twice the $174.3 billion in international development aid provided by major donors last year. The study warns that AI could deepen existing inequalities if less-prepared countries are left behind.
“I’ve spent my life in businesses where new technology changes everything, and I know you can’t stand still. AI is going to change how we work, how we do business and how wealth is created. But this is not a race that only the biggest or richest countries can win. What matters is giving young people the skills and the chance to get ahead, whether to start businesses, find jobs, or build something for themselves. Some Commonwealth countries are ahead, others have catching up to do. Nobody can afford to be complacent. That’s why we created this Index. It shows countries where they stand, what they’re getting right and where they need to do better. Governments now have to decide what they’re going to do about it,” said Calvin Ayre, founder of the Ayre Think Tank.
The index shows that basic infrastructure is not enough. In Togo, 4G coverage reaches 99.7% of the population, yet only 44.9% of young people report using the internet. In Malawi, electricity reaches just 15.6% of the population. In Papua New Guinea, the cost of mobile data exceeds 30% of the income of the poorest 40% of people.
Enthusiasm for AI often outruns practical skills. About 90% of young Nigerian respondents and 76.3% of young Bangladeshi respondents expected to use AI for education or work within a year.
Yet Nigeria scored 0.8 out of 10 and Bangladesh 2.3 on measures of conventional digital capability. Higher readiness scores also do not guarantee secure jobs. South Africa meets the benchmark but has youth unemployment rate of 46.3%. In India, which ranks eleventh, 85.8% of young workers are in informal employment.
Many governments also lack data on how young people actually use AI. Of the 1,128 sources examined, only 59 non-population sources covered the full 15-to-29 age group. The Bahamas has the largest data gap, missing evidence for 78 of 111 indicators. Antigua and Barbuda, the host of the meeting, ranks twenty-seventh with a score of 45.2 and has usable data for only 41 of 102 indicators.
The accompanying White Paper identifies five priorities: affordable and reliable access to technology; education that builds practical skills; stronger links from training into employment and entrepreneurship; AI tools adapted to local languages and needs; and safeguards that let young people question automated decisions.
“We need to make sure that the next generation will be able to do more than just consume AI products made elsewhere. Access must come with its own agency and a real equitable stake in how these systems are governed. Young people need to be equipped to question these new tools, to improve them and to be supported in building alternatives suited to their own needs. Whether that happens, will depend on choices made now. This index gives us a clearer view of where those choices are most urgent. We should use it,” said Professor C. Justin Robinson, Pro Vice-Chancellor and Campus Principal of the University of the West Indies, Five Islands Campus.
The index, researchers say, offers governments a clearer view of where action is most needed. Whether the benefits of AI are shared more widely will depend on the decisions countries make now.
