Emerging market banking has long been associated with currency volatility, cautious lending and the risk of state interference. According to John Ewart, Director and Investment Manager at Aubrey Capital Management, the last decade has told a more nuanced story, one shaped by technology, demographics and policy.
In an article shared with PaySpace Magazine, Ewart argues that smartphone penetration and digital identity schemes have brought hundreds of millions of unbanked people into formal finance, while rising incomes in Asia have increased demand for wealth management services. In fact, the wealth management industry in Asia is projected to reach $363 trillion already this year. At the same time, established banks now face new competitors, which means growth drivers in emerging markets look quite different from those in developed economies.
India: digital identity at scale
India is one example of how government-led digital identity can open up financial access. The Aadhaar biometric ID system, launched in 2010, combined with the Jan Dhan Yojana financial inclusion scheme, has helped open more than 560 million new bank accounts since 2014. Ewart notes that the combination of Jan Dhan accounts, Aadhaar identification and mobile connectivity sharply reduced the cost of onboarding retail customers, replacing informal moneylenders and cash economies in many rural areas. The Unified Payments Interface has since accelerated online and mobile banking adoption, placing India among the most digitally advanced banking markets in the emerging world.
Latin America and Africa: fintech leads on inclusion
In Latin America, Ewart says fintech has done more for financial inclusion than decades of branch expansion. Nubank now serves more than 100 million customers across Brazil, Mexico and Colombia through a low-cost digital model that offers fee-free accounts, credit cards and loans via smartphone. Its scale has pushed incumbent banks to digitise quickly to keep their customers. Mercado Pago, the fintech arm of Mercado Libre, has become a dominant lending platform, while Rappi, PicPay and Ualá have built similar customer bases.
A comparable shift is under way in Africa. South Africa’s Capitec has grown from a challenger into one of the country’s largest banks by market value, with more than 26 million customers and a low-fee, digitally led model that has taken share from established lenders over 25 years. Kenya’s M-Pesa, which pioneered mobile money almost two decades ago, now serves more than 100 million customers across several countries. With Africa forecast to have the world’s fastest population growth, Ewart expects mobile money platforms to be the first point of contact for many future consumers, especially where branch infrastructure and card penetration are limited.
Asia: wealth and regional hubs
At the wealthier end of the market, Singapore has emerged as a rival to Hong Kong as Asia’s leading financial hub. Assets under management there have reached US$4.6 trillion, narrowly ahead of Hong Kong, as family offices, private banks and treasury centres seek political stability, currency convertibility and regulatory predictability. Hong Kong still benefits from its links to mainland China, but Singapore’s position as a base for regional headquarters, wealth management and ASEAN-focused banking has strengthened.
Rising household wealth in South Korea, Taiwan and Singapore is also becoming a growth engine for banks and asset managers. Export-led growth, high savings rates and ageing populations have built large pools of investable assets, with Asia Pacific assets under management reaching US$23 trillion. Private banks and wealth managers have responded by expanding advisory, discretionary portfolio and succession planning services.
China: a different story
China’s banking sector presents a contrast. The industry is still working through the prolonged property downturn, and regulators have extended bad loan disposal programmes to the end of 2026, allowing banks to sell distressed real estate and local government exposures gradually. Non-performing loans linked to property developers remain a concern at several large state-owned banks, and local government financing vehicles add further risk. Ewart says Beijing’s approach prioritises deleveraging and recapitalisation to protect financial stability over profit and capital returns, a reminder that an index does not distinguish between banks focused on returns and those still rebuilding their capital.
What it means for investors
Ewart contrasts emerging markets with the US and Europe, where branch networks, wealth pools and payment systems are already mature. In much of the emerging world, financial inclusion, digital identity and rising incomes are still widening the customer base, while wealth accumulation in North Asia is only beginning to be monetised through advisory services. Combined with proven management teams, these trends underpin Aubrey’s view that emerging market banking will offer compelling long-term investment opportunities. The firm itself holds positions in Capitec and DBS.
“The next decade looks unlikely to be won by the largest balance sheets alone, but by the platforms and services closest to the customer,” Ewart believes.
