The IMF reports that global public debt is projected to exceed $100 trillion by the end of 2024, largely driven by rising fiscal deficits in the United States and China.
The latest estimates by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) predict that the aggregate public debt would edge up by the end of this year, reaching over $100 trillion.
Nations in sub-Saharan Africa are currently facing the toughest obstacles, as they work to increase tax revenue while sustaining critical fiscal initiatives. Meanwhile, the advanced economies have their average national debt level standing at 109%.
Particular rises in national debt levels were observed in the United States, the EU and China in 2024. Thus, U.S. government debt is forecast to reach 121% of national GDP by the end of the year, China is heading to 90.1% of GDP, and a debt worth 82.7% of GDP is expected in the EU.
Over recent years, public debt in the U.S. has shown roller coaster dynamics, rising to around 132% of GDP in the first year of the pandemic and then sharply falling by 7.3 percentage points in 2021. In February 2022, total U.S. federal government debt surpassed $30 trillion for the first time in history. As of the start of the ongoing fiscal year (which began in Oct. 2024), the U.S. national debt exceeded $35,4 trillion.
By contrast, the Chinese government’s debt has not witnessed sharp changes but has steadily increased from 2020 to 2024. Although China has driven certain growth through substantial, credit-funded investments, this economic strategy is also evident in the country’s growing national deficit.
Experts at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. have recently revised their forecasts for China’s economic growth prospects in the current year and 2025. Experts now predict that the gross domestic product (GDP) of this major Asian country will grow by 4.9% in the current year. China’s growth strategy includes specific stimulus measures along with plans to increase public spending.
At the same time, national debt is closely related to public spending. Its main purpose is to cover the gap emerging when public spending exceeds government revenues, such as taxes. Over time, if public spending consistently outpaces revenue, this debt grows.
In the EU, the gross national debt has significantly fallen since 2020 (91.2% vs 82.7%). However, within this year, it started slightly growing, as many European countries are struggling to find additional public resources to tackle pressing challenges such as the green transition or strengthening defence without raising taxes.
