A new analysis from climate advocacy group 350.org suggests that elevated oil and gas prices could continue to impose substantial costs on households and businesses through the remainder of 2026, even as diplomatic efforts between the United States and Iran advance and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz resumes.
The estimate comes days after Washington and Tehran signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU) intended to establish a framework for broader negotiations on regional security, sanctions relief, and Iran’s nuclear program. The agreement also includes commitments aimed at restoring maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical route for global energy exports.
According to 350.org, higher fossil fuel prices linked to the conflict have already generated approximately $374 billion in additional costs for consumers and businesses since the outbreak of the Iran war earlier this year. Based on pricing scenarios from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the organization projects total additional costs could reach between $667 billion and $702 billion by the end of 2026, even if the Strait of Hormuz remains fully operational.
The analysis argues that energy markets may continue to reflect geopolitical risks, supply concerns, and infrastructure disruptions despite progress toward a diplomatic settlement.
“The oil and gas industry is draining billions from people and businesses on the back of a war that has killed thousands and pushed millions toward poverty and hunger,” said Andreas Sieber, Head of Political Strategy at 350.org. “Even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens tomorrow, we should expect prices to remain above pre-crisis levels.”
The group’s calculations are based on IMF oil-price scenarios, Goldman Sachs gas market forecasts, global consumption data, and assumptions regarding reduced demand resulting from higher prices and rationing measures. The methodology compares current and projected energy prices with levels observed before the start of the Iran conflict.
According to the analysis, the projected costs include approximately $200 billion in additional oil expenditures and about $128 billion in additional gas-related costs during the remainder of the year. The figures do not include secondary economic effects such as food-price increases, fertilizer costs, broader inflation, reduced industrial output, or employment impacts.
The publication of the analysis coincides with ongoing diplomatic activity surrounding the US-Iran agreement. Planned technical talks between the two countries in Switzerland were postponed after renewed fighting in Lebanon raised uncertainty around the negotiation process.
However, US, Iranian, Israeli, and Hezbollah-linked sources later confirmed that a ceasefire had been reached in Lebanon. The truce followed a period of intensified fighting that threatened to complicate implementation of the recently signed memorandum.
The interim agreement between Washington and Tehran establishes a 60-day framework for negotiations on unresolved issues, including Iran’s nuclear program. It also outlines measures intended to normalize economic relations, reopen trade routes, and facilitate the movement of energy supplies through the Gulf region.
Oil prices have retreated from their wartime highs since the agreement was signed, reflecting expectations that shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz will continue. Before the conflict, the waterway handled nearly one-fifth of global crude oil and liquefied natural gas shipments.
Despite the easing of immediate supply concerns, analysts continue to monitor how geopolitical developments, regional security conditions, sanctions implementation, and future negotiations could influence energy markets in the coming months.
The 350.org report highlights the extent to which global energy prices remain sensitive to disruptions in major producing and transit regions. While the US-Iran memorandum has reduced some near-term uncertainty, the organization argues that elevated oil and gas prices may persist even under a scenario in which negotiations continue and maritime trade flows remain open.
Further technical discussions between US and Iranian officials are expected once diplomatic talks resume.
